Trump’s Claim: India to Cease Russian Oil Purchases- Fact or Fiction?

On October 15, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had assured him that India would cease purchasing oil from Russia. This statement has sparked significant debate and concern, given India's substantial reliance on Russian crude oil. This article delves into the implications of Trump's claim and examines India's response to this assertion.

The Context of the Claim

President Trump's announcement came amid escalating tensions between the United States and India over trade and energy policies. In August 2025, the U.S. imposed a 50% tariff on Indian goods, citing India's continued importation of discounted Russian oil. Trump's administration has been pressuring countries, including India, to reduce their purchases of Russian energy in an effort to isolate Moscow economically and curb its ability to finance the ongoing war in Ukraine. 

India's Energy Landscape

India is the world's third-largest importer of crude oil, and as of mid-2025, Russia has become its top supplier, accounting for approximately 36% of its oil imports. This shift is largely due to discounted prices following Western sanctions on Russian energy exports. Indian refiners, such as Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd (MRPL), have capitalized on these discounts, with MRPL sourcing 35-40% of its crude from Russia in the September quarter. 

India's Response

In response to Trump's claim, India's Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) emphasized that the country's energy import policies are guided by the need to safeguard the interests of its consumers in a volatile energy market. The MEA did not directly confirm or deny Trump's assertion but reiterated that India's energy security remains a priority. 

Additionally, Indian refiners have expressed reluctance to abruptly halt Russian oil imports. MRPL's Managing Director, Mundkur Shyamprasad Kamath, stated that while the company is exploring alternative sources of crude, it remains focused on sourcing the most cost-effective oil available. He noted that U.S. oil has not been commercially viable for MRPL thus far. 

Implications of a Shift Away from Russian Oil

If India were to cease importing Russian oil, it would face several challenges:

• Increased Costs: Russian oil has been significantly cheaper due to sanctions, and finding alternative sources at comparable prices could lead to higher import bills.

• Supply Chain Disruptions: A sudden shift away from Russian oil could disrupt existing supply chains, leading to potential shortages and logistical challenges.

• Economic Impact: Higher oil prices could lead to increased inflation and affect the broader economy, particularly sectors heavily reliant on energy inputs.

Conversely, diversifying oil sources could enhance energy security and reduce dependence on a single supplier. India has been in discussions to increase imports of U.S. oil and natural gas, aiming to strengthen bilateral energy ties. 

Diplomatic Dynamics

Trump's claim also appears to be part of a broader diplomatic strategy to strengthen U.S.-India relations. The appointment of Sergio Gor, a Trump ally, as the U.S. ambassador to India, signals a renewed focus on deepening ties between the two nations. Additionally, discussions are ongoing regarding a bilateral trade agreement that includes energy cooperation. 

However, India's response indicates a desire to maintain strategic autonomy in its foreign policy decisions. While India values its relationship with the U.S., it is unlikely to make significant policy shifts solely based on external pressure.

Conclusion

President Trump's claim that India will cease purchasing Russian oil has introduced uncertainty into the global energy market. While India's official stance remains non-committal, the country's energy policies are unlikely to change abruptly without careful consideration of economic and strategic factors. The situation underscores the complex interplay between energy security, international relations, and domestic economic interests. As discussions continue, the global community will be watching closely to see how India navigates this challenging diplomatic and economic terrain.

Source: (AP News)