US Military Move in Venezuela: How Crude Oil Prices Will React This Monday

​The news of the US military intervention in Venezuela and the capture of President Nicolás Maduro has sent massive shockwaves through the global community. As the markets open this Monday, January 5, 2026, the world is holding its breath. Venezuela is not just another country on the map; it sits on the largest proven oil reserves on the planet. When a global superpower takes direct action against a nation with that much energy wealth, the market does not just react—it often undergoes a seismic shift.

​However, the situation in 2026 is complex. We are currently witnessing a tug-of-war between immediate geopolitical panic and the cold, hard math of global supply. This blog explores how crude oil prices are likely to behave in the coming hours and what it means for the global economy.

​The Monday Morning Jump and the Risk Premium

​In the world of finance, markets hate uncertainty above all else. Over the weekend, while traders were away from their desks, the entire geopolitical landscape shifted. This almost always results in a "gap-up" opening. This is a technical term meaning the first trade on Monday morning happens at a price significantly higher than where it closed on Friday, leaving a visible gap on the charts.

​Before this weekend, Brent crude was trading relatively quietly at around $61 per barrel. Analysts are now expecting an immediate spike, with prices potentially testing the $65 to $70 range as the opening bell rings. This initial jump is driven by the "geopolitical risk premium." Traders buy oil immediately as a hedge because they fear that the conflict could lead to damaged infrastructure, naval blockades, or wider regional instability.

​Why Venezuela’s 303 Billion Barrels Are the Ultimate Prize

​To understand why this move is so significant, you have to look at the staggering numbers involved. Venezuela holds more than 303 billion barrels of proven oil reserves. To put that in perspective, that is roughly 17% of the entire world's total oil, placing them even ahead of Saudi Arabia.

​For years, the US has had a tense relationship with the Maduro administration. In early 2026, statements from Washington have made it clear that securing these reserves is a top strategic priority. If the US successfully facilitates a transition where major American energy firms can enter and manage these fields, the global energy map will be completely redrawn. But in the short term, the sight of military hardware near these massive oil deposits makes every investor nervous about potential fires or sabotage.

​Why Prices Might Not Hit Record Highs Just Yet

​While the headlines are dramatic, there is a reason why we might not see $100 oil today. Venezuela's oil industry has been in a state of severe decay for over a decade. Due to internal mismanagement and previous rounds of sanctions, their actual production had fallen to around 1 million barrels per day. This is a tiny fraction—less than 1%—of the world's total daily consumption.

​Because Venezuela is currently a "small player" in terms of what it actually puts into tankers, the physical supply of oil in the world has not actually changed yet. Furthermore, the global market in 2026 was already facing a predicted oversupply. With booming production from US shale and new discoveries in Guyana, there is a significant cushion. Unless the conflict spreads to the Middle East or blocks the Panama Canal, the "supply shock" is currently more psychological than physical.

​The Long Term View: Could Prices Actually Drop?

​If the US military presence leads to a stable, pro-Western government that invites companies like Chevron and ExxonMobil to rebuild the crumbling infrastructure, the long-term outlook for oil prices actually becomes "bearish." Experts believe that with modern technology and proper investment, Venezuela could double its production within eighteen to twenty-four months.

​If millions of additional barrels of Venezuelan crude eventually flood the market, it would create a massive global surplus. This would put downward pressure on prices, making it difficult for OPEC+ members to maintain high profits. So, while Monday is characterized by the fear of a shortage, the next few years might actually be defined by an era of cheap, abundant energy.

​What This Means for Your Daily Life

​For the average person, the most immediate concern is the price at the petrol pump. When crude oil jumps, the cost of gasoline and diesel usually follows within a few days. If Brent crude settles near $70 today, you should expect to see a noticeable increase in fuel costs by the end of the week.

​However, for countries like India, the impact might be somewhat cushioned. Many nations have already diversified their energy sources over the last few years to avoid the volatility of South American politics. As long as the global benchmark stays below $80, the domestic impact in most non-conflicting nations should remain manageable, though transport and logistics costs will likely tick upward.

​Key Indicators to Monitor Throughout the Week

​As trading continues through Monday and into the rest of the week, there are several key factors to keep an eye on:

• ​OPEC+ Statements: Will the oil-producing bloc cut their own production to keep prices high, or will they stay silent to avoid a confrontation with the US?

• ​Physical Disruptions: Watch for news regarding naval blockades in the Caribbean. Any sign that oil tankers are being physically blocked from moving will send prices into a frenzy.

• ​Political Stability: Any news regarding the formation of an interim government in Caracas will move the market's focus from "war risk" to "future investment."

​Monday's market reaction is a classic example of how history is written in real-time on a trading screen. We are witnessing a high-stakes moment where the world's largest oil patch is the ultimate prize. While the immediate reaction is a spike in prices, the true story will be how the global economy adjusts to a Venezuela under entirely new management.